April 12, 2007
Guessing the 2007 Peak Snow Depth
Fun with numbers
Guessing the 2007 Snow Depth
| Month | Rain/Snow fall |
|---|---|
| Mar | 125mm |
| Apr | 120mm |
| May | 155mm |
| Jun | 200mm |
| Jul | 200mm |
| Aug | 250mm |
| Sep | 245mm |
All rain/snow for 06 was well below average.
March was 46% below average in 06, and snow depth was 81cm, also about 50% of the long-term average.
I’d say the March rainfall indicates the season peak depth.
| Month | Mean 3PM temp | Rain/snow fall |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 06 | 16.2°C | 58mm |
| Apr | 6.6°C | 118mm |
| May | 3.6°C | 86mm |
| Jun | 1.6°C | 70mm |
| Jul | 1.2°C | 153mm |
| Aug | 3.3°C | 110mm |
| Sep | 5.7°C | 226mm |
| Month | Mean 3PM temp | Rain/snow fall |
|---|---|---|
| Mar | 14.3°C | 145.9mm |
| Apr | 12.1°C* | 2mm* | *Very low rainfall, and quite warm. |
From the March rainfall, I’d say the snow depth in 2007 will be (145/125 * 120) = 139.2cm.
Posted at 10:35 AM
Comments:
That’s a somewhat uncharacteristically low ball early estimate from you! I smell a rat.
Interesting that estimates (everyone’s) always lean towards the mean. After all, if last year was abnormal then this year has to be normal right? To get some cosmic balance :)
Posted by a club member
139.2cm? Compared to last year of about 85 cm (lowest year on record), I guess that is a big improvement but still a bit on the low side. The Frog “Snowatch.com.au” is predicting that this year will be above normal. My prediction is 160 cm+… We can’t have 2 lows in a row… Can we?
Posted by a club member
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