February 20, 2006

Crystal Ball: Season 2006?

Now that Christmas is over, and we're all back at work we all start thinking about our next holiday... And for the readers on this site, that means skiing in the Snowy mountains.

I think we can all agree that 2005 was a bit of a let down (Snow-wise, but we all still had a great time!). Snow only peaked at 150cm at Spencer's Creek (2004 was in the 200's). What can we expect in 2006? We know there are two ingredients, that must be in perfect proportions. Cold and moisture. We had one but not the other last year. Lots of moisture, not much cold.

This year, so far, with a weakening El Nino, we could see more moisture. Good. But what about the coldness? I'm watching it like a hawk. What I am seeing is a cooling of the waters of the west coast of Australia. This could mean a cold weather systems will push up into the main land a little too early, and we'll have something similar to last year -- too warm. On a positive note, with a boderline La Nina, cold systems would get sucked up over the mainland via a more direct route from the south pole weather systems. So, I'm still in two minds. If we get a little more warming off the west coast, we could be in for a bumper system.

Keep watching this space!

Posted at 11:33 AM